Gold bearish view

The DSI sentiment for Gold is in single digits and has been falling, like the price, since the US election. It is undeperforming silver and all other metals.  Although the risk of a snapback rally is high and some volatility around the Fed decision likely, chart patterns still suggest lower to 1084 area before we see $100 bounce back to retest broken support at 1182.

gold-daily

Bigger Picture; the monthly chart shows gold in a declining wedge. It is stair-climbing down the monthly Fibonacci retrace levels. Losing 1085 again sends us to 889 next where we should see a significant support for a rally, potentially back to 1182 or 1283.

gold-monthly

EURAUD short

I am looking for a way to trade an AUD rebound.  AUDUSD is not that attractive right now because of USD strength and the upcoming Fed (maybe) hike. I like EURAUD short, AUDCAD long.  Here is a look at EURAUD.

EURAUD monthly
EURAUD monthly

The bigger picture: monthly chart shows a reversal at the 50% of the decline from the 2008 high.  The rally from the 2012 low looks like 5 waves and impulsive but because stalling at the 50% and because it could also be an C=0.618A rally there is an argument to be made it is corrective.  Either way at a minimum I expect continued decline to re-test the 0.236 fib (2008 high - 2012 low) which was support in 2015 and 50% of the rally from the Aug 2012 low at 1.4095.  1.4023 is also interesting structural support from August 1997.

EURAUD weekly shooting star
EURAUD weekly shooting star

Weekly shooting star reversal candle at key levels.

EURAUD daily
EURAUD daily

Daily chart shows entry at 50% retrace of the last swing lower (May high to August low), equal ABC correction from the August low and 200 day moving average.

Trade summary:

I sold the 1.5030 level will add on a retrace bounce back to 1.4930.     Stop 1.5110.    Target 1.4030 .

Beaver, Betty, Bill & Ben

Some Foreign exchange jargon, or nick names for currencies:

  • USD (U.S. Dollar) - Greenback or Buck
  • GBP (British Pound) - Sterling
  • GBP/USD (British Pound / U.S. Dollar pair) - Cable or Betty
  • EUR/USD (Euro) - The Single currency or Fiber (*NOT Eurodollar *see below)
  • EUR/GBP (Euro / British Pound) "THE Cross" or Chunnel
  • CHF (Swiss Franc) - Swissy
  • EUR/CHF (Euro/Swiss Franc)  Chuffs
  • CAD (Canadian Dollar) - Loonie
  • USD/CAD (US Dollar / Canadian Dollar) "The Funds" or Beaver
  • AUD (Australian Dollar) - Aussie or Ozzie or Matey
  • NZD (New Zealand Dollar)- Kiwi or The Bird
  • USD/RUB (U.S. Dollar / Russian Ruble) - Barney (Rubble)
  • EUR/RUB (Euro / Russian Rubble) - Betty (Rubble)
  • GBP/JPY (British Pound / Japanese Yen pair) - Gopher (sometimes Guppy)
  • EUR/JPY (Euro / Japanese Yen pair) - Euppy (pronounced Yuppy)
  • USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen pair) - Ninja or "Bill & Ben"
  • AUD/NZD (AustralianDollar/NewZealandDollar) Kylie
  • SGD (Singapore Dollar) Sing (USD/SGD dollar-sing)
  • CNY (Chinese Yuan) Mao (USD/CNY dollar-mao)
  • SEK (Swedish Krone) The Stokkie (EURSEK Euro-stockie)
  • NOK (Norwegian Krone) The Nokkie (EURNOK Euro-nokkie )
  • USD/MXN (Mexican Peso) dollar-mex (not M-E-X)

*A EuroDollar is not the Euro currency; it annoys many old FX traders to hear the euro currency referred to as "eurodollar". A eurodollar refers to a US dollar on deposit at banks outside the US. Similarly, eurodollar futures are a very popular interest-rate futures contract.